INTEND – INtentify future Transport rEsearch NeeDs

Methodology

1. Definition of the research landscape by reviewing literature related to technological advances, political imperatives, future transport concepts, foward looking research projects,

2. Understanding the conditions by definition and validation – with the help of experts – of Megatrends and their impact on the transport concepts of the future using the Analytical Network Process (ANP),

3. Delivering Mid term research priorities by developing a sketch of the future transport system, identifying gaps between ongoing R&D streams – fields of technology and development of the mobility system itself)  , delivering a blueprint on transport needs, priorities and opportunities – especially by trying to identify and integrate blind spots beyond the mainstream.

Defining the landscape (work package 2) – 1

General Goal

• Review of pertinent literature to identify future technological trends, mobility concepts for passenger and freight transport across, with an on outlook of 2020-2035 and identify political imperatives required for the uptake of these technologies.

Intermediate goal

• To identify the future technologies, mobility concepts and political imperatives that will allow the European transportation sector to meet its goals for sustainable decarbonized transport

Defining the landscape (work package 2) – 2

Methodology

• Review of European & international research transport projects, technological roadmaps and reports by transport associations and stakeholders and extraction of the future technologies,
• Clustering of the future technologies into thematic areas,
• Identification of future mobility concepts through reports and past forward looking research projects,
• Review and appraisal of political imperatives and tools according to policy gaps identified.

Targeted results

• Creation of a transport project and future technologies handbook offering review of technology oriented projects and studies that will identify the future technologies required by the transport sector,
• Valuable feedback for WP3 and WP4 in order a) to describe the future transport system and b) to identify the research gaps required to achieve this system.

Understanding the conditions (work package 3) – 1

General goal

• Elaborate the impact of the most important trends, i.e. megatrends, technological advances in passenger and freight transportation, and political imperatives on realization of the transport concepts of the future.

Intermediate goal

• Identification of potential global megatrends which are most likely to impact the transport concepts of the future.

Understanding the conditions (work package 3) – 2

Methodology – a structured approach based on the application of  the Analytic Network Process (ANP) with three steps

1. Clustering technological advances, political imperatives, megatrends and key transport concepts of the future,

2. Identification and estimation of relationships (weights) between all elements in clusters and between the clusters,

3. Determination of the prioritized elements (technological advances, megatrends and political imperatives) in all clusters for successful implementation and realization of key transport concepts of the future.

Targeted Results

• Identified importance of key technological advances, political imperatives and megatrends for priorities of selected transport concepts of the future,
• Delivering an important input for the definition of future transport research priorities.

Understanding the conditions (work package 3) – 3

The updated transport synopsis tool

• The transport research synopsis tool has been developed during the Race 2050 project to compare the assessments of European transport industry foresights
  (http://www.transport-synopsis.eu).
• During the project-runtime of Intend the tool will be updated to compare different transport concepts of the future and the importance of the respective cluster indicators based on their ANP assessment.

Guidelines for a foward looking transport sector (work package 4) – 1

General Goal

• Characterization of the future transport system and identification of the potential differences to the recent system
• This sketch does not only consider technological and infrastructural developments, but includes in its holistic manner a wide spectrum of influencing factors – aspects, which are relevant for the transformation of the transport system, e.g. the changing role of mobility and behaviour patterns, political reaction to climate change or change of spatial structure –

Methodology – for elaborating the guidelines for a forward looking transport sector –

1.A sketch of the future transport system will be developed pointing out the differences to the recent system – based on desk research and results from previous work steps.

2.Second, the impacts of potential game changers for the transport system will be elaborated through qualitative expert interviews – providing hypothesis concerning the development of the transport system to be tested in an online survey.

3.Third, based on the results a transport research agenda will be elaborated, pointing out research needs, priorities and opportunities in the transport sector beyond mainstream research.

Targeted Results

• Guidelines will finally serve the European Commission officials as well as transport industry stakeholders, researchers and members of the public to direct policy-making, research efforts or industrial R&D towards the main future challenges.
• This will ultimately enhance long-term competitiveness and innovation in the European transport sector.

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