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Transport Concepts of the Future – The Intend Synopsis Tool – Behind the Scenes
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
What is the purpose of the Intend Synopsis Tool? |
The tool constitutes a dynamic knowledge base repository on the major developments in the transport sector. It provides a visualization of the INTEND’s main outcomes. The basis for the platform is the Transport Research Synopsis Tool which has already been developed in the project RACE2050 coordinated by TUB. The new tool, will be updated and integrated into the INTEND website, provides a comprehensive picture of all forward-looking studies focusing on technological developments, megatrends and policies. The Synopsis Tool is showing the outcomes of the pairwise impact assessment of different Megatrends, Political Imperatives, and Technological Advances impact on the priority of key transport concepts of the future (TCF). Following the Analytical Network Process (ANP) Approach it was thus, based on experts’ assessment, possible to rank selected TCF according to the relevancy of each sub-category of Technological Advances, Political Imperatives and Megatrends. |
How does it work? |
Via the control panel on the right side of the tool it is possible to enable the slider showing the spider graphs, ranking the TCF according to their relevancy, for a certain Megatrend, Political Imperative or Technological Advances by stakeholder. |
What are “Transport Concepts of the Future”? |
“Transport concepts” have been identified as concepts or ideas that present how mobility takes place between two places, referring to movement of passengers or freight. They might describe the vehicle and the way that transportation or mobility takes place. Within the frame of the project task T 2.2 relevant “Transport concepts of the future” have been identified through a methodology based on an extended literature research. The most relevant “Transport concepts of the future” were validated through expert interviews and, as a second step, the application of the ANP. |
What are Megatrends? |
Megatrends represent cultural, economic, political and technological changes that are currently taking place and the effects or implications of megatrends are reflected on the whole or almost entire society. In contrast to trends, megatrends last longer and have a stronger influence in various areas. Moreover, trend development patterns are easier to understand and predict than those of megatrends. |
What are Political Imperatives? |
Political Imperatives (PIs) can be conceived in two ways: 1.A PI can be a demand or claim to take a certain action or realize a certain target state and is usually formulated by politicians (as part of the political debate), NGO’s, private entities (e.g. companies) and research institutions, to give an example. 2.A PI can be a formulated intention to take a certain action or realize a desired target state by politicians or political bodies like governments, ministries etc. The formulated demand or claim can also be seen as a first step in the political discourse to shape actual political action. |
What are Technological Advances? |
Technological Advances are basically key transport technologies with an outlook of 2020 – 2035 across the four transport modes (road, aviation, rail and maritime) including infrastructure and transport system which were treated horizontally. |
What does the methodological concept behind the tool’s data look like? |
The data of the tool is based on an Excel-Sheet containing the results of the Analytical Network Process (ANP). The basis of the ANP methodology is that the results are obtained through the perception of experts belonging to different interest groups. The INTEND survey session, in which ninety representatives from three different groups (academia, policy making, and industry) participated, helped to structure the ANP model, and to perform the pairwise assessment of elements while pointing out the megatrends, political imperatives, and technological advances impact on the priority of key transport concepts of the future. The pairwise comparison combined with an impartial attitude of the respondents from the different group implies that an estimation of megatrends impact on a TCFs is the equal treated or similar without any difference. For more information on ANP, please check the related Deliverables of WP 3. |
– Ranking Transport Concepts of the Future (TCF) based on Stakeholder-Specific Assessment of Influencing Factors in the Field of Freight Transport –
- policy
- industry
- academia
- overall
Megatrends
| Ageing Society | ageing world population; increased life expectancy |
| Bigger world economy | growth of the world economic output; GDP growth; increase of international trade |
| Changing Lifestyles | changing reproduction and family lifestyle; generational shift - flexible and attractive works; global and greater connectivity; fitness trends; demand for experiences; loneliness and single person households; individual - freelancing models; empowerment of women; online shopping; collaborative consumption - sharing economy |
| Energy demand and sources | increased energy usage, energy investments, usage of renewable sources of energy and alternative fuels, fuel efficiency, global energy mix |
| Environmental challenges - climate change | decrease in carbon emissions, global temperature increase, sea level arise, increased risk of flooding from melting glaciers, adaptation and mitigation policies, development of carbon markets |
| Urbanization and megacities | higher population densities, improvements in cities infrastructure, environmental and health risks; PPP models; more sustainable cities. |
Political Imperatives
| Vehicle efficiency | Vehicle efficiency should be addressed as a key factor to gain more energy efficicency/ reduce consumption |
| Closer public and private cooperation | private investments in the network need to become more attractive [incl. PPP] |
| Raising investment in infrastructure | modernization, capacity upgrade in rural and urban areas |
| Digitization | at national, European and international level (incl. transport sector) |
| Supporting modal shift | aviation to rail or inland waterway, motorized to public transport/active modes |
| Innovative research system | stronger evaluation and coordination of research policies and their impact, international research in strategic fields, long-term [basic] research considering the innovation cycle, supporting side-paths in risky but promising fields [where failing is too expensive for private research) |
| Increasing connectivity, intermodal access and fit-for-purpose network standards | increase connectivity, intermodal access and fit-for-purpose network standards |
Technological Advances
| Automation | (Autonomous and automated operation of vehicles: Personal air transportation drones; Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS); Human Machine Interface; Coordinated platooning; Autonomous trains; Automated ship operations) |
| Electrified vehicles/vessels | (Electrification of vehicles and vessels including electrification of auxiliary systems, hybrid vehicles/vessels and fuel cell vehicles/vessels: Electric and Hybrid electric ships; demonstrators for electric/ hydrogen fuel cell or hybrid vehicles and vessels; Electrified auxiliary systems for trucks; Electrified auxiliary systems for ships) |
| Infrastructure | (Development of infrastructure: Fast and inductive charging; On road inductive charging; Hydrogen Refueling infrastructure; Alternative Maritime Power (AMP- cold ironing); Future rail stationand airport design for intermodality; Smart & connected port; Smart grids) |
Transport Concepts of the Future
| Automation in passenger transport | driverless vehicles, including autonomous cars, aircrafts, trains |
| Automation in freight transport | driverless vehicles, including autonomous cars, aircrafts, trains, vessels for freight transportation |
| Shared mobility, on- demand mobility | shared mobility schemes, e.g. car-, bike- and ride- sharing; on demand resp. demand-responsive mobility; MaaS – a single-digital service integrating public and private forms of transport and provides end-to-end planning, booking and payment options |
| Electrification in freight transport | electrified vehicles, including electric trucks, aircrafts and vessels for freight transportation |
| Electrification in passenger transport | EVs, including electric cars, trains, aircrafts and vessels/ferries for passenger transportation |
| Seamless transport chains | seamless transport chains for passenger transport; national and international travel; as a result of MaaS |
| Seamless transport chains | seamless transport chains for freight transport; seamless logistics – smooth combination of different modes and minimization of delays / interruptions in the logistic chain; seamless multimodal freight transport services |
| Personal air transportation | urban air mobility; passenger drones for urban passenger transport |
| Delivery drones | small unmanned air vehicles supporting urban deliveries; delivery drones as an indivisible part of the supply chain; delivery drones to cater for hard-to-reach |
| Freight consolidation hubs, freight distribution centers | multimodal settlements that provide access to different modes of transport for transport-oriented companies, logistic service providers and production enterprises; inter-modal infrastructure facilities provision; optimization of deliveries, efficiency increase and traffic/emissions reduction in city centres |
| Mart use of travel time | time made available because of vehicles automation; travel time as a usable timeslot for leisure, socializing or work-related activities |
| High-speed rail | high-speed trains for passenger transport; high- speed rail networks as an alternative to aviation |
| Superfast ground and underground transportation | hyperloops for passenger transport; hyperloop for faster and more sustainable surface transportation |
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 769638.
